The Iran crisis 2026 has brought everyone to the streets. From shopkeepers to students to every citizen of Iran, people are on the road marching against the Iranian government and their rigid practices. Shockingly, the Iranian people are now protesting to make Iran great again as it was before the Islamic Revolution in the nation.
Iran has seen a series of mass protests throughout history, where one led to the Islamic Revolution in 1979, overthrowing Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, the Monarch of the time.
Protests have intensified after the Mahsa Amini execution, shaking the nation. Ever after, the Iranians are on the road, fighting for women, life and freedom, for the right to basic cost of living, stopping mass executions and hence the Iran crisis situation has always been hypersensitive in Iran.
However, Iranians are now comparing the nation’s situation before the Islamic era, calling the revolution the greatest mistake of Iran’s political history.
Iran is going through one of the most challenging phases in its modern history, dealing with multiple crises including political mismanagement, internal repression, economic collapse, heavy sanctions, infrastructural & environmental crises, worsened international relations, war zones and many more.
Iran’s relationship with the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia is well known to the whole world. It is constantly in the headlines regarding tensions between either of the nations.
With the Gaza situation, Iran has turned Israel into its biggest enemy who is backed by the United States. Hence, many analysts are anticipating the fall of Iran in the next couple of months.
The recent U.S. military operation in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro—a close Iranian ally—has sent shockwaves through Tehran. Iran is left in fear of facing the same fate as Venezuela and Iraq.
President Donald Trump’s warning that the U.S. is “locked and loaded” to intervene if Iran kills protesters has transformed what began as economic demonstrations into a potential flashpoint for US Iran military confrontation.
In this article, we will learn how Iran landed in such a situation, their international stands, predictable future, external pressure faced by Iran, its oil reserves and many more.
Let’s Begin with a Brief on the History of Iran to Understand the Iran Crisis 2026 Clearly
History of Iran: From Ancient Empire to Islamic Republic
Iran is known to be one of humanity’s oldest and most influential civilizations. The Persian Empire, with people following Zoroastrian religious practices, under Cyrus the Great in the 6th century BCE was a beacon of culture, administration, and religious tolerance.
In the 7th century, after the Arab invasion Islam was brought to Persia, although Iran maintained its distinct identity as the Persian language and its culture survived.
In 1925, Reza Shah Pahlavi aggressively developed and modernized the nation with Western influence. Due to mass oil production and trade, his close alliance with America and Israel alienated religious conservatives and nationalists alike.
The 1979 Islamic Revolution: Iran’s Political Transformation
With political repression and public dissatisfaction, the Islamic Revolution emerged.
In 1979, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned from exile and overthrew the Shah, and Iran became the Islamic Republic.
After the Islamic Revolution, many drastic changes were seen, from de-modernization, de-westernization, rigid Islamic practices, women restrictions, developing nuclear weapons, to facing heavy sanctions from the West.
Iran-Iraq Conflict: Decades of Sunni-Shia Rivalry
The Iran–Iraq rivalry is widely known as a long-standing conflict rooted in the Sunni–Shia divide, which intensified after the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution.
Iran’s new Shia leadership alarmed Sunni-ruled Iraq under Saddam Hussein, and when this mixed with power struggles and old Arab–Persian tensions, it created decades of rivalry that still shapes the Middle East conflict today.
Current Situation of Iran: Economic Collapse and Social Unrest in 2026
There are several joint factors that have accelerated the current Iran crisis situation, including:
Devastating Economic Situation: Sanctions and Currency Collapse
Heavy sanctions faced by Iran have led to Iran’s GDP contracting, inflation soaring, unemployment skyrocketing (especially among youth), and the Rial (Iran’s currency) collapsing.
In late 2025, it took roughly 1.45 million rials to buy one U.S. dollar—a historic low for the Iranian economy. The standard of living has deteriorated, poverty has struck harder, and civilians are forced to live in misery.
Anti-Women Laws: The Mahsa Amini Protests and Women’s Rights Crisis
Iran enforces strict Islamic rules on women, and those who do not abide by such laws face cruel punishment.
In September 2022, the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody—detained for allegedly not wearing her hijab properly—sparked the biggest nationwide protests Iran has seen in decades.
Her death became a symbol of anger against compulsory dress codes, moral policing, and long-standing discrimination, leading to the “Women, Life, Freedom” movement that challenged the state’s treatment of women.
The Mahsa Amini protests were brutally suppressed with thousands of arrests, and several protesters were executed after rushed trials. Even after suppression, the protests deeply changed Iranian society and continue to fuel Iran protests 2026.
Fear still exists, but public silence has broken, especially among youth and women.
Social Tension: Youth Unemployment and Brain Drain Crisis
Other factors such as:
Over 60% of Iran’s population is youth, and they struggle to grab a nice job opportunity with decent income. They criticize the government for not fulfilling their promises.
While they watch their peers in other nations like Dubai, Istanbul, or European cities live freer, more prosperous lives and wonder:
Why not us?
Most of the skilled, talented, educated, and wealthy people have fled the country and settled down in different nations, leaving Iran facing a severe brain-drain crisis.
Why the West Warns Iran: Strategic Threats and Regional Influence
The West views Iran as a growing challenge for several reasons.
First, Oil Reserves: Iran’s Energy Leverage
Iran holds some of the world’s largest oil and gas reserves, giving it major leverage over global energy markets.
Second, De-Dollarization: Challenging US Financial Dominance
Iran has pushed trade in non-US currencies due to heavy sanctions. Iran is smuggling its oil directly to China and other regional neighbors to avoid such harsh sanctions.
Hence, it directly challenges the dollar-centric global financial system and is moving toward de-dollarization.
Third, Geopolitics: Iran’s Regional Influence and Hostility
Iran’s influence in Iraq and its hostility toward the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia keep regional tensions high.
The Biggest Concern: Iran’s Nuclear Program Threat
Iran started its nuclear program during the Shah period with America being at the forefront of supporting Iran then. Even today, Iran has resumed its nuclear power pursuit saying it was only for peaceful energy, but the West suspects it as a nuclear weapon threat.
These disagreements ultimately changed the geopolitics for years. In 2018, U.S. President Trump pulled out of the “JCPOA Nuclear Deal” and reimposed harsh sanctions on Iran.
Today, Iran enriches uranium up to 60%, which is far beyond civilian needs, and this proximity to nuclear capability terrifies Israel and keeps the whole region on edge.
Trump’s Message to Iran After Venezuela Regime Change
Venezuela Operation: A Warning Shot to Iran
On January 3rd, 2026, the U.S. military force conducted airstrikes on Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro. Further, President Donald Trump stated that “we will run the country” .
In the interview which was taken after the Venezuela regime change operation, Donald Trump warned Iran not to interfere, saying that Iran would “suffer consequences” if it challenged US actions.
Many nations showed their differing opinions on the Venezuela situation, among which Iran’s statement has captured quite a bit of attention due to the nation’s prolonged conflicts.
Iran, being the close ally of Venezuela, condemned the action of America. The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei responded to the action of the United States, stating it as a “blatant violation of national sovereignty.”
Iranian officials must have been terrified in reality, witnessing the recent U.S. willingness to conduct such an operation against national sovereignty.
Left with fear and questions:
Could they possibly frame such an operation against Iran?
Trump’s Warning to Iran: “Locked and Loaded” Threats
On December 29, 2025, Trump warned Iran not to rebuild its nuclear program, saying if they do, “we’re going to have to knock them down” .
On January 5, 2026, after the Venezuela operation, Trump reiterated his warning aboard Air Force One:
“If they start killing people like they have in the past, I think they’re going to get hit very hard by the United States” .
U.S. forces have several times conducted operations against Iran. One of the greatest losses to Iran was when America destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities in June 2025.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth was blunt:
“Nicolás Maduro had his chance, just like Iran had their chance, until they didn’t… He effed around and he found out.”
Is Iran Next After Venezuela?
Predictions and Possibilities: What Comes Next for Iran
The debate over military action against Iran is sharply divided.
Most Likely Scenario: Restraint with Limited Strikes
Some argue Iran’s government will exercise relative restraint on protesters given Trump’s explicit threats, avoiding the mass killings that characterized the 2019 and 2022 crackdowns.
While Trump will maintain pressure through sanctions and rhetoric but avoid a full-scale invasion of Iran.
Although, there is a limited possibility of military strikes if certain red lines are crossed, like resumed nuclear enrichment or mass killing of protesters.
Least Likely but Possible Under Circumstances: Escalation or Negotiation
Some argue that the Israel and Hamas war may lead to military escalation in Iran.
Some analysts are also predicting a demonstrated resolve between the U.S. and Iran through negotiation. Iran desperately needs sanctions relief, and Trump wants a “win” to claim.
For the Iranian people, the immediate concern is survival—economic and physical.
In the end, whatever path is chosen, it is ordinary Iranians who bear the human cost, caught between internal repression, economic sanctions, and the constant shadow of war.
The Venezuela operation has changed the calculus. Trump has demonstrated he’s willing to use military force in ways previous presidents weren’t.
Iranian Leaders Must Now Consider: Will Trump Follow Through?
If they violently suppress protests, will Trump follow through on his threats? If they resume nuclear activities, will there be strikes? The uncertainty itself may be a form of deterrence.
One miscalculation, one hot-headed decision, one event spiraling out of control, and we could see a US Iran conflict that makes recent Middle Eastern wars look small by comparison.